Címke: investment outlook 2026

Individuals carefully managing their savings, families planning for long-term security, business leaders responsible for corporate financial stability, and executives at insurance companies or pension funds – all share a common sentiment today: in personal conversations, they appear more concerned about economic developments than at any time in recent years. Given the rapidly shifting global and […]

In 2026, several key questions will shape the investment landscape: whether gold’s strong momentum can continue, whether the AI-driven investment cycle will remain intact, and whether the technology sector’s elevated equity valuations will prove sustainable. A further weakening of the U.S. dollar could continue to create a favourable environment for emerging-market assets, while a growing […]

Global markets in 2025 were shaped by investor expectations surrounding the inauguration of the new U.S. president, the uncertainty triggered by an emerging trade war, and the subsequent wave of optimism that drove equities to new record highs.   The gradual weakening of the U.S. dollar and a strong rally in gold further supported market […]

2025 has been a good year for many asset classes after the Liberation Day turmoil. Gold prices soared massively, equity markets performed well and we have also seen outstanding returns in pockets of the fixed income space, particularly in emerging markets.   How do we go further? As it remains an impossible task to assess […]

Achieving inflation-adjusted returns over the long run is possible through both short- and long-duration bonds as well as equity investments. However, the longer the bond duration or the higher the equity allocation in a hypothetical 100-year portfolio, the higher the resulting real return—albeit with greater volatility compared with a short-term bond strategy. Benjamin Graham, the […]

Base case: a structurally weaker dollar (EUR/USD 1.20–1.25) The Trump administration’s policy stance continues to lean toward a weaker dollar, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates multiple times—even in an environment where macro fundamentals may not fully justify such easing. Throughout much of 2025, particularly in the first half of the year, market […]

Is Yield Curve Control (YCC) coming? In the early 2010s, the European – primarily Greek – debt crisis repeatedly unsettled investor sentiment. To help keep debt levels under control, alongside fiscal tightening, the European Central Bank also introduced several measures: it launched liquidity and bond-purchase programs, and, in a previously unimaginable move, cut the deposit […]

Emerging markets delivered a strong performance in 2025, and a closer look at the underlying economic and structural drivers suggests that the outlook for 2026 remains favourable. The geopolitical and economic weight of developing countries continues to rise, supported by long-term trends such as demographics, age structure, urbanisation, institutional reform, and the gradual liberalisation of […]

CEE economies are still waiting for the tide to turn, hoping geopolitical tensions will ease and growth can resume.   CEE GDP Growth The CEE region remains in a prolonged holding pattern, with economic growth still significantly weaker than in the years before the pandemic and the war. Inflation – though moderating – is materially […]

Progress Made, Challenges Ahead Disinflation remained the dominant theme across Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland throughout 2025. As winter set in, price pressures moderated further, and December inflation is expected to fall comfortably within central bank tolerance ranges. With this, regional easing cycles are nearing completion, while both the Czech and Hungarian central banks have […]

Several upcoming elections across the CEE region may meaningfully shape the policy environment and influence investor sentiment over the next one to two years. Hungary, Latvia and Slovenia will all hold parliamentary elections in 2026, each carrying the potential for shifts in fiscal priorities, regulatory direction and alignment with EU policies. Bosnia and Herzegovina will […]

In our base-case scenario, most of the global disinflation process is already behind us, and improving growth prospects are set to support commodity demand in 2026. Under these conditions, a broad-based increase in commodity prices appears likely. In our optimistic scenario, AI-driven productivity gains help keep inflation and energy prices contained, limiting commodity price appreciation […]

A long term forecast in technical analysis should always be combined with thoughts that were established back in the 1930’s by the greatest pioneers in this analysis methods.   One of these working examples is the Benner Cycle, which proved to be a rock solid method in the past century. The Benner Cycle, developed in […]

As we enter the new year, it is useful to review how systematic multi-asset strategies have behaved relative to a traditional global 60/40 portfolio and how they may be positioned for what is likely to remain a demanding macro environment. This note focuses on two complementary, rules-based frameworks: Bold Asset Allocation (BAA)[1], which varies its […]