Who would play in the World Cup Final if it were held this February? Spain vs. England or Spain vs. France?
As the FIFA World Cup approaches, we do not only watch the matches – we also look at the odds. Behind bookmakers’ numbers lie probabilities, models, and expectations. This was our starting point when we created the concept of the hypothetical VIG Football World Cup Equity Portfolio Index.
Our idea is simple: if we convert World Cup odds into percentage probabilities, we can assign those weights to the respective countries’ equity markets. The result is a global, thematic portfolio that simultaneously reflects sporting probabilities and the structure of the world economy as outlined by football.
This approach essentially connects the worlds of football and capital markets, potentially bringing investing closer to those who may have previously considered it distant or overly complex.
How is the portfolio composed in February?
Source: Bet365, ESPN, VIG Asset Management
Status as of 17 February 2026
The favourites: Spain, England, France
Based on the current odds, Spain is the leading favourite to win the World Cup, followed by England, with France close behind. Together, these three countries account for nearly half of our portfolio.
According to current probabilities, we may therefore expect a Spain-England final.
Source: VIG Asset Management
First scenario: Spain-England
If the two top favourites meet in the final, market expectations would be confirmed. From a portfolio perspective, this would represent a stable outcome. The highest-weighted countries would continue to dominate the index, with no significant rebalancing required.
It is like a portfolio in which the largest equity markets perform in line with expectations.
Source: VIG Asset Management
Second scenario: Spain-France
However, France is only slightly behind England in terms of probability. If France were to reach the final instead of England, this would not constitute a dramatic surprise.
We interpret this as a situation where the third-largest weighted market outperforms the second largest. The overall portfolio structure remains intact, but the proportions shift.
Source: VIG Asset Management
Changes at the bottom of the field
Beyond the frontrunners, developments among the lower-ranked teams also matter. Since January, Belgium has moved up, overtaking Colombia to claim 11th place.
As a result, Belgium entered our portfolio in February, further increasing the weight of developed markets.
Source: VIG Asset Management
How is our equity portfolio performing in February?
The weights of the VIG Football World Cup Equity Portfolio Index are reviewed regularly on a monthly basis, reflecting changes in betting odds. If a country’s probability increases, the weight of its equity market rises in the model; if it decreases, its weight is reduced proportionally.
In this way, changes in sporting probabilities and capital market movements jointly shape the portfolio’s performance.
Source: VIG Asset Management
Why follow the development of our hypothetical portfolio?
We consider this to be an illustrative and educational tool that helps explain how probabilistic thinking works in financial markets.
When we ask whether Spain will face England or France in the final, we are in fact reflecting on how much confidence we place in market consensus – and how much weight we assign to alternative scenarios.
Both in the World Cup and in capital markets, the objective is not to predict a certain outcome, but to assess probabilities.
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The portfolio presented and the related analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation, nor do they form the basis for any investment decision. The performance presented is based on hypothetical calculations, is for informational purposes only, and does not reflect the past or future returns of any existing investment product.
The construction of the portfolio and the determination of probabilities involve the use of statistical
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