When football meets the stock market – investing from a new perspective
Behind the World Cup’s winning probabilities lies an immense amount of analytical work: statistics, performance data, risk assessments, and expected outcomes.
Exactly as in financial markets. This simple idea is the foundation of the VIG Football World Cup Equity Portfolio Index – an imaginary thematic equity portfolio that translates World Cup probabilities into the language of capital markets.
What is our objective?
Many people believe that investing is only for experts. Our goal is to bring the world of investments closer to those who may have previously perceived it as distant or overly complex.
Through a widely known and engaging theme, the VIG Football World Cup Equity Portfolio Index demonstrates how we may think about markets, risks, and expected returns.
With this deliberately illustrative and hypothetical approach, we aim to show that the logic of investing is understandable and can be presented through a familiar framework – in this case, football.
How does it work?
The concept is deliberately straightforward. First, we identify the countries considered the top contenders for the World Cup. We apply various mathematical calculations. These probabilities, expressed as percentages, reflect the market’s assessment of each national team’s chances of winning the tournament.
Next, each country is matched with its most important stock market index, and investment weights are determined based on these probabilities. A tournament favourite receives a higher weight in the portfolio, while countries with lower chances are represented with smaller allocations.
Based on our current calculations, the eleven most likely countries are listed below; next month will reveal whether the composition changes.
Source: Bet365, ESPN, VIG Asset Management
As of 5 January 2026
Why might this appeal to people interested in investments?
This approach is not about prediction, but about the structured use of market expectations. Sports betting markets are widely regarded as some of the most efficient forecasting mechanisms in the world, precisely because real money is at stake. When this collective judgment is combined with equity markets, it can create a fresh and intuitive investment narrative.
The portfolio is constructed as follows:
- The currency is EUR.
- The portfolio always includes the stock indices of the 11 most likely countries.
- Index weights are rebalanced monthly based on current betting odds.
- It is global in scope, spanning multiple countries and regions, and combining developed and emerging markets.
More than an illustrative model
Based on probabilities available in early January 2026, we simulated the portfolio’s theoretical performance over the previous year, as shown in the chart below. From now until the 2026 FIFA World Cup, we will prepare monthly analyses and update the composition of the portfolio based on current odds, and prepare analyses based on this.
The performance presented is based on hypothetical calculations, provided for illustrative purposes only, and does not reflect the past or future performance of any existing investment product.
It is important to emphasize this is a structured approach built on market expectations. The VIG Football World Cup Equity Portfolio Index illustrates that investing is not only about numbers, but also about stories – stories people can relate to and engage with, even in a personal way.
Source: VIG Asset Management
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The portfolio presented and the related analyses are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation, nor do they form the basis for any investment decision. The performance presented is based on hypothetical calculations, is for informational purposes only, and does not reflect the past or future returns of any existing investment product.
The construction of the portfolio and the determination of probabilities involve the use of statistical models and methods based on artificial intelligence; any projections or forecasts regarding future performance are not guaranteed.
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