Guidance on the 2026 economic environment and market dynamics
In 2026, several key questions will shape the investment landscape: whether gold’s strong momentum can continue, whether the AI-driven investment cycle will remain intact, and whether the technology sector’s elevated equity valuations will prove sustainable. A further weakening of the U.S. dollar could continue to create a favourable environment for emerging-market assets, while a growing concern looms over how long investors will tolerate rising sovereign debt levels worldwide. The outlook for the Central and Eastern European region will also be heavily influenced by the trajectory of the war in Ukraine – progress toward peace could accelerate economic convergence, whereas a prolonged conflict may continue to constrain the region’s growth potential.
Together with my portfolio-manager colleagues, we have reviewed these issues in detail – along with many other themes affecting the global economy and capital markets – to provide our clients with meaningful guidance for navigating 2026’s economic and market dynamics.
In our base-case scenario, the global economy in 2026 continues to be shaped by the trends that emerged in 2025, with the overall macro backdrop remaining supportive for risk assets. In our optimistic (bull-market) scenario, we envision an almost ideal environment where economic growth can pick up without generating inflationary pressures. Our pessimistic (bear-market) scenario, by contrast, focuses on the potential market implications of rising and increasingly unsustainable sovereign-debt burdens.
Within this publication, readers will find thematic deep dives on artificial intelligence and sovereign-debt risks, as well as shorter analyses on Germany’s fiscal expansion and commodity-market trends. Our quantitative research team and technical analysts also contribute timely insights, and we provide an extended section on emerging markets – particularly Central Europe.
I sincerely hope this Outlook will assist our clients in making well-informed investment decisions in 2026, and I wish everyone every success in the year ahead.
Looking forward to navigating 2026 together,
András Loncsák
Chief Investment Officer
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